Ceasefire Deal
Happy New year,
We are delighted about the news for the release of the hostages still kept in the tunnels of Gaza hopefully starting next week.it is believed that several dozens are still alive and their release is being prioritised (although the release of all would have been the preferred option).
For the past few months we have witnessed dramatic changes in the geo political landscape. The Iranian axis has received serious blows, including the Hizbollah defeat in Lebanon; the destruction of Iranian air defence systems and other critical infrastructure , leaving their nuclear facilities and oil industry vulnerable, and most recently, the collapse of the Assad regime – a key ally of Iran and Hizbollah. The Houties in Yemen are the only force still showing signs of aggression with two long range missiles hitting central Israeli cities in the past week or two.
The weakening of the Shiite axis, together with the harm caused to Hamas military capabilities, has narrowed the immediate threats Israel is facing on multiple fronts, with potential strategic opportunities for a shift in its relationship with key countries in the Suni Muslim world, including Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Indonesia.
On the other hand, we are seeing a growing risk for a radical Sunni axis. The new leader of Syria, Ahmed Al-Sharaa, is an ex-Al Qaeda Jihadist purporting to showcase a moderate side, yet considering his history, this is not a likely long-term, reliable presumption one can make. His emerging patron Turkey, led by a Muslim brotherhood loyalist (sharing the same religious extremist ideology as Qatar and Hamas ) could form another potential threat on the Israeli border that has been relatively quiet since the 1973 Yom Kippur war. Learning the lessons of October 7, Israel pre-emptively conquered the Syrian side of Mount Hermon and other parts of the Golan Heights to create a security buffer zone to protect from potential militia and terrorist groups that are currently spread across Syria. Countries like Jordan and Egypt are also keeping a close eye on potential threats to their internal stability, as well as the Kurds and Druze communities who are potential targets for attack by the new Syrian regime and it’s allies.
European countries are also reacting by considering the return of their many Syrian refugees
The Israeli government must navigate this changing landscape as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends his corruption trial 3 days a week. In addition to this, the Israeli coalition is continuing its legislative initiatives aimed at weakening certain pillars of the democratic system such as the judiciary, the police and the public prosecution.
We are also witnessing the Palestinian Authority returning its governance in cities like Jenin that have been a stronghold of Hamas and Islamic Jihad terrorists.
It remains to be seen whether Israel is going to attack the Iranian nuclear facilities or would a new nuclear deal will be signed following President’s trump inauguration and what alternative governance system can be established in Gaza to replace Hamas.
We are looking forward to seeing the hostages released and reunited with their families
Le’shalom
Ayal Marek
ARZA
President
UPJ Cp Vice president