The Mask is Off
Israel’s retaliatory attack on Iran on 26 October 2024 is an unprecedented act representing the beginning of a new phase in the Middle East.
Iran and Israel have been fighting a shadow war for many years. Iran both established and has been supporting a circle of fire around Israel for decades, by arming and financing terrorist groups in Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Gaza, Yemen and Iraq, as well as the in the West Bank. As the Iranian leadership has repeatedly declared, this is all with the aim of eradicating Israel whilst trying to obtain nuclear weapons which would provide the ultimate tool to execute their intentions..
Israel, on the other hand, has been fighting these proxies and has led numerous covert operations in an attempt to delay and damage Iran’s capabilities for such annihilation.
Iran attacked Israel directly for the first time in April this year, launching around 100 ballistic and cruise missiles and drones from Iranian soil, and again early in October with approximately 200 (mostly ballistic) missiles.
The mask is now off, with Israel retaliating with a very calculated and targeted attack on Saturday 27th October that has significantly damaged Iran’s aerial defence capabilities and destroyed some military ballistic missile production facilities.
Coordinated with the US, this was a measured response that sends a clear message to Iran of Israel’s capacity to cause significant damage to Iran’s oil and gas industry, as well as to their nuclear facilities, should Iran retaliate further. The US understood and supported Israel’s need and right to respond to the Iranian attack earlier this month. However, with a looming election in the coming fortnight, they wanted Israel to temper their response to avoid further escalation.The US sent reinforcements for Israel’s defence capabilities and sent messages of deterrence to Tehran.
There are two main possible scenarios that could now play out:
The optimistic scenario is that Iran will contain their reaction and avoid retaliation that could lead to a stronger response from Israel in return. This scenario could possibly lead to a negotiated deal that would see the release of the hostages in Gaza, implementation of UN resolution 1701 in Lebanon (Hezbollah withdrawing north of the Litani river) and the promotion of a peace agreement with Saudi Arabia.
The less optimistic scenario is a third attack from Iran, which would generate more significant retaliatory attacks from Israel, potentially targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities and oil and gas infrastructure.
The outcome of this new phase of direct Iran vs Israel conflict will potentially shape the future of the Middle East – a potential process of acceptance, reconciliation and de-radicalisation within some of the Sunni Arab states led by Saudi Arabia, versus continued escalation led by the Iranian-led coalition of radical shite Islamists, including terror organisations like Hezbollah working together with the Jihadist Sunni extremist movements such as the Muslim brotherhood and their affiliated terror organisations like Hamas.
Now that the mask is off, Israel needs stronger support from the international community, led by the US and Europe, to address the risks that these radicals pose to the stability of the Middle East and the world at large.